Methodology
Dr. Robert M. Figlio and Steven K. Aurand founded CAP Index in 1988 to address the
growing need of corporations and government agencies to objectively identify and
measure their foreseeable crime risks and help companies manage costly losses. Named
for our unique model that assesses Crimes Against Persons and Property, CAP Index,
Inc. was founded by pioneers in the fields of demographics, criminology, statistics
and computer modeling.
Model
The CAP Index model is based on The Theory of Social Disorganization that states
that there is a proven correlation between the Social Disorganization in a neighborhood
and the amount of loss predicted to occur there. By analyzing neighborhood demographics
(excluding race and religion) together with crime statistics and other databases
with known indicators of crime, we are able to provide precise scores indicating
a site’s risk of a crime in comparison to national, state and county averages.
Theory
The theoretical basis for CAP Index’s crime forecasting model stemmed from studies
of crime and delinquency in neighborhoods, undertaken at the University of Chicago
in the 1920’s. The studies pioneered research in the discipline which later
became known as the “ecological perspective” regarding crime, delinquency, and human
behavior. This approach views crime and delinquency as the products of weakly
organized social environments (such as neighborhoods). These neighborhoods
can be recognized in geographic space by physical characteristics of the environment
and the demographic structure of the population that lives within.
CAP Index, Inc. has been at the forefront in responding to the need to foresee where
crime is likely to occur and to assess the effects of crime deterrence measures
by building on this long and central area of investigation in modern criminology
and criminal justice practice. (maybe we make this like a pull quote or side bar?)
Method
CAP Index, Inc. crime risk data are generated by sophisticated econometric forecasting
techniques. The method is known as structural modeling and employs a complex
multivariate analysis of a wide variety of neighborhood physical housing, demographic
and crime information to produce a “best fit” crime risk assessment for geographic
areas as defined by CAP’s standard approach (one, three mile radii or two, six mile
radii around the site of interest) or as defined by the user’s specific requirements.
The methods used by CAP are widely employed in a variety of research and applied
settings in all areas of research and application in academic, business and governmental
settings. To insure high validity and utility, CAP’s crime forecasts are continually
tested against thousands of actual crime experiences reported at specific sites
across industry groups and geographical areas.